Disclaimer: This is a conspiracy theory-based article. Some parts are factually true while some others are extrapolations with an overlay of a possible logical story-weaving. Together, it is an attempt to provide an explanation for the world that makes sense as of today. Please read with the utmost discretion.
Russia has not been much appreciated among the world’s rich and powerful countries. Sanctions have been imposed on it, cornering it economically. But Russia’s long-standing premiere, Vladimir Putin, already has a master plan in place that will span over a decade from 2015.
Stage 1 – Laying the Foundation
1.1 Russia isolates its economy from the rest of the world to reduce its dependence on many/most of the nations. It reduces its imports but cleverly keeps the world dependent on some of its oil and gas exports. Russian economy is less sensitive to the shock because it has already been self-isolating for the past six years(Source:The Economist). Hence even by March 2020, the Russian economy is still growing and expected to continue growing for the rest of the year.
1.2 Making the Western Democracies Weaker
1.2.1 Russia interferes in the US election leading to Trump’s victory (Source: Wikipedia) – Cambridge analytica leaks fortunately proved this right. Russia did not want a strong US president for its subsequent stages.
1.2.2 Russia influences Brexit vote (Source: NPR.Org) – Cambridge analytica leak and many subsequent inquiries into the matter have proved this. This leads to a distracted, weaker UK and EU.
Stage 2 – Executing the Virus Attack with Partners in Crime
2.1 Russia Finds Partners in China & Saudi in 2019
Friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin become the pillar of China-Russia relations (Source: South China Morning Post) – Interestingly, both nations have announced closer ties at a time when they have been having a rough patch with the US (Russia over occupying Crimea and China over the trade war).
Putin (Russia) and MBS (Saudi) Hi-5 at G7 summit in 2018 when no leader was connecting with MBS due to the Khashoggi murder (Source: The Guardian) – Putin’s open friendliness with MBS at a time when the rest of the world has been sidelining him for a serious reason has raised many eyebrows around the world.
2.2 Executing the Virus Plan and Minimizing the Impact on Self
– In Dec 2019, China develops and releases the virus in China itself for mutation
– Russia seals its border with China towards January 2020 end (Source: CNBC), before any reported case in Russia, before even any country or WHO has acted. This serves as the strongest point of this theory.
– Saudi bans all pilgrimage and foreign tourist travel by February end (Source: The Independent) before any other country has done so and WHO has declared the virus a pandemic. Possibly that’s why Saudi has very few coronavirus cases till date as compared with its neighbour countries.
– The virus mutates and spreads all over Europe and the US. Rest is history as we are witnessing it.
Weaker Europe means countries don’t coordinate and cooperate well, to shut their borders timely and the virus spreads across faster before anybody can act. As a result all the western European countries including Italy, Spain, France and UK struggle deeply with 10,000s of cases by march end.
Trump’s denial of the threat for weeks in feb and march leads to the highest numbers of cases in the US (Source: Madison.com) and 100,000s of deaths anticipated in April as admitted by the white house in early April.
2.3 Hitting Them Harder When They’re Down
Putin and MBS pretend to fight and violate the OPEC treaty and pump more oil in the market (Source: The Independent) making the US energy sector unviable and the US banks weaker (as they have heavily funded the US energy sector in the tune of trillions of dollars in the last few years). This in turn will weaken the US banking industry further.
In relative terms so far, Korea did well on testing and prevention. So did Taiwan. India did an early lockdown. Israel did ok too. Were they involved in the war – who knows?
Stage 3 – A 20-20 Vision For This Theory Playing Out for the Rest of 2020 & Next Few Years
At some point by the mid of 2020, virus spread reduces in most parts of the world including the EU and the US. The lockdowns open up gradually with limited travels in and out of the countries. The world economy restarts slowly and by the end of the year or early 2021, the vaccine/cure is found and gradually made available to everyone around the world by the end of 2021.
In the process, the US economy is weakened contracted by double digit percentage points, with 50M+ unemployed, weak banking sector, minimised energy/hospitality sectors, and slow pick up across other industries.
Scenario 3.1 – If the West Goes Down Without a Fight
Given that Trump is likely to be the US leader for this year and next (elections may be delayed), the US would be struggling and out of control. More USD and bonds would be printed in the name of liquidity/quantitative easing and eventually possibly defaults on its debt obligations leading to the world’s lost trust in the dollar. The US economy, in this situation, would collapse like a house of cards.
Still, the Rouble and/or the Yuan would be much less likely to replace USD for a long time, let’s see.
Germany will stop supporting and bailing out EU nations, and everyone would be on their own. The EU will be weakened further.
Russia, China, and Saudi form the new G3 and start driving the world agendas further by/around 2024. India may be included due to their young workforce and massive consumer market.
Scenario 3.2 – If the West Finds Out the Above and Fights Back (I mean literally, with weapons)
Alternatively, the US and Europe end up retaliating with a war for which Russia is already prepped up with allies like China and Saudi to help fight back.
If the above theory is true, unknowingly we are living through World War III; and staying at home watching tv or fantasizing about such conspiracy theories.